Prediction: I believe SpaceX will win the contract to providing a vehicle for astronauts to the ISS and plausibly beyond.

Coincidently a commentary was released yesterday about SpaceX with some concerns about costs:

http://blogs.forbes.com/beltway/2011/05/23/what-nasa-risks-by-betting-on-elon-musks-spacex/

Even after reading the article, I feel that it is justifiable to know that with any project with federal revenue involved, it is well known that companies provide a proposal in the lower range of expected expenditures to make it attractive to win a contract.

It is part of how Lockheed Martin won the bid for Project Constellation and also in part of the reason why Obama effectively killed that program because of the indescrepencies to actual total costs (between what Lockheed projected versus what NASA projected after reviewing Lockheed's proposal); no sure way to estimate costs. Of course actual estimates cannot be confirmed to what either organization claimed.

On top of that - there was huge oversight in expectations with the original specifications of the Space Shuttle system: Many believed there would be a 3 week refurbishment period! The likely hood of oversight applies with any company vying to deliver high productivity with low costs.

So in a sense, I feel that it is fair to show concern about the actual cost of a project and scrutinize it. It is valid to have NASA and other committees to express these concerns even if they have some bias.

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